Anti-Martingale Calculator — Pyramid Trading Strategy
Calculate position sizing for the anti-martingale strategy. Enter your base position, win rate, and multiplier to see how your position grows during winning streaks and resets on losses.
USD size of the first position
Probability of winning each trade
% profit on a winning trade
% loss on a losing trade
Position size growth per win
Resets after this many consecutive wins
Trades for P&L simulation
Balance at the start of a streak — the first level it cannot fund is flagged
EV per Trade
+$1.40
Simulated P&L
+$642
Profit Factor
2.01
Break-Even Win Rate
37.50%
Optimal Multiplier
1.28x
Kelly-based estimate
Max Position Size
$800
Max Single-Trade Risk
$24.00
Logarithmic scale: each gridline is ten times the one below, so the win and loss stay visible next to the position.
| Consecutive Wins | Position Size | Banked Streak Profit | Capital Required | Potential Win | Potential Loss (resets streak) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $100 | $0.00 | $100 | +$5.00 | −$3.00 |
| 2 | $200 | $5.00 | $200 | +$10.00 | −$6.00 |
| 3 | $400 | $15.00 | $400 | +$20.00 | −$12.00 |
| 4 | $800 | $35.00 | $800 | +$40.00 | −$24.00 |
| Consecutive Wins | Probability | Expected in 200 trades |
|---|---|---|
| 1+ wins | 55.00% | ~49.5 times |
| 2+ wins | 30.25% | ~27.2 times |
| 3+ wins | 16.64% | ~15.0 times |
| 4+ wins · max level | 9.15% | ~8.2 times |
| 5+ wins | 5.03% | ~4.5 times |
| 6+ wins | 2.77% | ~2.5 times |
* A loss at any level resets the streak and returns to base position size. Capital Required is the cash the position ties up without leverage; Account at Step is your balance plus the profit banked earlier in the streak. Simulation uses a deterministic sequence for consistent results.
Last reviewed · How we check our calculators
How to Use the Anti-Martingale Calculator — Pyramid Winners
Enter your base position size — the dollar amount you trade at the start of each sequence or after any loss. Set your win rate (the percentage of trades you expect to win) and your average win and loss percentages from historical data or your trading plan. Choose a win streak multiplier (how much you scale up after each consecutive win) and the maximum streak level before you reset to the base position regardless of outcomes.
The calculator builds a position ladder showing your size, potential profit, and potential loss at each consecutive win level. It also runs a deterministic simulation over your chosen number of trades to show expected P&L, profit factor, and a break-even win rate analysis.
Use the simulation to test whether your win rate and reward-to-risk ratio genuinely support the anti-martingale approach. Unlike the standard martingale, losses stay small because you reset to your base position — only your winning streaks carry larger size.
Enter your account balance to check whether you can actually fund the ladder. For every streak level the table shows the capital the position ties up (its full size, with no leverage), the profit already banked earlier in the streak, and the account you would hold at that step. The first level whose position is larger than that account is flagged in red — cap your maximum streak level below it, or lower the multiplier.
The Formula
The anti-martingale strategy increases position size after each win and resets to the base after any loss. This is the opposite of the classic martingale, which doubles after losses.
Position Size at Each Streak Level
- Level 1 (Base): P1 = InitialSize
- Level n: Pn = P1 × Multipliern−1
With a 2× multiplier and $100 base: Level 1 = $100, Level 2 = $200, Level 3 = $400, Level 4 = $800. A loss at any level resets immediately to $100.
Break-Even Win Rate
- Break-Even Win Rate = AvgLoss% ÷ (AvgWin% + AvgLoss%) × 100
For a strategy with 5% average wins and 3% average losses, the break-even win rate is 3 ÷ (5 + 3) × 100 = 37.5%. Any win rate above this produces a positive expected value per trade at the base level.
Expected Value per Trade (Base Level)
- EV = (WinRate × AvgWin$) − ((1 − WinRate) × AvgLoss$)
Why Anti-Martingale Works (When It Works)
The key insight is asymmetry of outcomes: during a winning streak you carry larger size and compound gains; when the streak ends (a loss), you return to base size, limiting the damage. This aligns position sizing with momentum — you're larger when the market favors you and smaller when it turns. The strategy requires a genuine positive edge (win rate above break-even) to show long-run profit; it does not create edge where none exists.
Practical Examples
Example 1 — Conservative 2× Multiplier, 4 Levels
A swing trader with a 55% win rate, average win of 5%, and average loss of 3% uses a $100 base position with a 2× multiplier and 4 levels.
- Break-even win rate = 3 ÷ (5 + 3) × 100 = 37.5% ✓ (55% > 37.5%)
- Base EV per trade = 55% × $5 − 45% × $3 = $2.75 − $1.35 = +$1.40
- At level 4: position = $800, potential win = $40, potential loss = $24 (then reset)
- Maximum drawdown on a single loss at peak = $24
The trader profits consistently because the edge is real. The anti-martingale amplifies that edge during streaks without risking catastrophic loss.
Example 2 — Aggressive 3× Multiplier
Same win rate (55%) and R:R, but a $50 base and 3× multiplier over 3 levels.
- Level 1: $50 → win $2.50, lose $1.50
- Level 2: $150 → win $7.50, lose $4.50
- Level 3: $450 → win $22.50, lose $13.50 (then reset to $50)
A full three-win streak banks $2.50 + $7.50 + $22.50 = +$32.50 before the size resets to $50. The risk sits at the top of the ladder: two wins followed by a loss at level 3 nets $2.50 + $7.50 − $13.50 = −$3.50, while a loss on the very first trade costs only $1.50. The asymmetry is clear.
Example 3 — No Edge (Break-Even Trade)
Win rate = 37%, avg win = 5%, avg loss = 3% (below break-even of 37.5%).
- EV = 37% × $5 − 63% × $3 = $1.85 − $1.89 = −$0.04
Even the anti-martingale cannot save a strategy with negative EV. The system amplifies losses equally during any brief winning run. Always verify your edge before applying any position scaling system.
More Money-Management Tools
Position sizing only works as a system. Check the same plan from every angle:
- Martingale Calculator — Calculate martingale position sizes for crypto and forex trading.
- Kelly Criterion Calculator — Calculate the mathematically optimal bet size using the Kelly Criterion formula.
- Bankroll Management Calculator — Calculate optimal bet sizes with fixed stake, fixed percentage, and Kelly Criterion staking plans.
- Masaniello Calculator — Plan a Masaniello staking series: set a bankroll, the number of bets and the wins you expect, and get each stake as results come in, the target and the full stake plan.
- Drawdown Calculator — Calculate the percentage gain needed to recover from a drawdown.
- Risk Reward Calculator — Calculate the risk/reward ratio for any trade in seconds.
New to sizing rules? Read the guide Money Management & Position Sizing: Martingale, Anti-Martingale, Kelly and Risk of Ruin — formulas, worked examples and risk-of-ruin numbers for every method.
Frequently Asked Questions
The anti-martingale (also called reverse martingale or Paroli system) is a position sizing strategy where you increase your position after each win and reset to the base position after any loss. The idea is to ride winning streaks with larger size while limiting losses to the base position only. This contrasts with the classic martingale, which doubles after losses — a strategy that is mathematically dangerous and prohibited by many brokers and casinos.
Yes, significantly. In a classic martingale, losses compound exponentially — after just 7 consecutive losses you need 128× your base position to recover. The anti-martingale has no such escalation on the loss side; every loss simply returns you to base size, so your maximum drawdown per event is always the base position times your average loss percentage. The anti-martingale does require a genuine positive edge (win rate above break-even) to be profitable over time — it does not create edge where none exists.
A 2× multiplier with 3–4 levels is the most common starting point. At 4 levels your maximum position is 8× base, meaning a loss at peak costs 8× base × avgLoss%. A 3× multiplier reaches 27× base at level 4 — high profit potential during long streaks, but a single loss at peak is a larger absolute hit. Start conservatively with 2× and 3 levels. Only increase after proving your edge over at least 100 trades. The streak cap also acts as a discipline mechanism: after N consecutive wins, you take profits and reset regardless of momentum.
The break-even win rate is the minimum win rate needed for a strategy to be profitable, ignoring any size scaling. Formula: Break-Even Win Rate = AvgLoss% ÷ (AvgWin% + AvgLoss%) × 100. If your average win is 5% and your average loss is 3%, break-even = 3 ÷ 8 × 100 = 37.5%. This means you need to win at least 37.5% of trades to be profitable — anything above that is positive expectancy. Most successful traders target a margin of safety of 10–20 percentage points above break-even.
Yes — the anti-martingale is asset-class agnostic and is used by momentum traders and trend followers in forex, equities, commodities, and crypto. It is particularly popular in forex day trading because trends and momentum streaks are common. The key requirement is that your trading system has a measurable positive edge confirmed over at least 50–100 trades. Without a real edge, no position sizing system — including the anti-martingale — can generate long-run profitability.
Sources
- Martingale and anti-martingale betting systems (Wikipedia)
- Ralph Vince, The Mathematics of Money Management (Wiley, 1992)
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