Value Bet Finder — No-Vig → EV → Kelly Workflow
Find and size value bets in three steps: strip the bookmaker's vig to get fair odds, check the bet's expected value, then size the stake with the Kelly Criterion.
Odds format
Saved for all betting calculators
Enter the bookmaker's odds for both sides. We'll strip the vig to find the true fair probability.
e.g. -110 or +150
e.g. -110 or +150
Vig
Fair Prob A
Fair Prob B
Verdict
After step 3 — still missing: your odds and stake (step 2), your bankroll (step 3)
Fair Probability
Last reviewed · How we check our calculators
How to Use the Value Bet Finder Workflow
A value bet is a price that pays more than the true chance of winning justifies. Finding one takes three questions: what is the fair probability, does my price beat it, and how much should I stake? This tool answers them in order. Odds can be entered in American, decimal or fractional format — the format switch above the steps applies to every odds box.
This workflow combines three essential betting calculators into a single step-by-step process. Instead of switching between separate tools, you move through each stage and your inputs carry forward automatically.
- Step 1 — Remove Vig: Enter the bookmaker's odds for both sides of a two-way market (e.g. -110 / -110). The calculator strips the bookmaker's margin (vig) to reveal the true fair probability for each outcome.
- Step 2 — Calculate EV: Enter the odds YOU are being offered on Side A. The tool uses the fair probability from Step 1 to calculate expected value. If EV is positive, you have an edge.
- Step 3 — Kelly Sizing: Enter your total bankroll. The Kelly Criterion calculates the mathematically optimal bet size. Half Kelly (recommended) provides a good balance of growth and safety.
Move on with the Next button; once you reach Step 3 the summary at the bottom shows a clear BET or PASS verdict along with the recommended stake amount — before that it lists what is still missing. Click a step you have already opened to go back and change it.
The Formula
This workflow chains three formulas together:
- No-Vig Fair Probability: Fair_P = Implied_P / Overround, where Overround = sum of all implied probabilities (always > 1 due to the vig).
- Expected Value: EV = (Fair_P × Profit) − ((1 − Fair_P) × Stake). Positive EV means the bet is profitable long-term.
- Kelly Criterion: f* = (b×p − q) / b, where b = decimal odds − 1, p = fair win probability, q = 1 − p. Half Kelly = f* / 2.
The tool uses the additive (proportional) vig-removal method: each side's implied probability is divided by the overround, so the fair probabilities add up to exactly 100%. Side A's fair probability is then used for both the EV and the Kelly step. If the Kelly fraction comes out at zero or below, the price has no edge and the verdict is PASS whatever the bankroll.
Practical Examples
Example 1 — Value Found: NFL Moneyline
A sharp book prices Chiefs −150 / Bengals +130. You can bet the Chiefs at −125 (decimal 1.80) at another sportsbook. Stake $100, bankroll $5,000.
- Implied probabilities: 150 ÷ 250 = 60.00% and 100 ÷ 230 = 43.48% (total 103.48%)
- Vig: 3.36% — fair probabilities Chiefs 57.98% / Bengals 42.02%
- EV at 1.80: 0.5798 × $80 − 0.4202 × $100 = +$4.37 per $100 (+4.37%)
- Kelly: (0.80 × 0.5798 − 0.4202) ÷ 0.80 = 5.46% of bankroll; half Kelly = $136.55
- Verdict: BET
Example 2 — No Value at −140
Same market, but the best Chiefs price you can find is −140 (decimal 1.714). The fair price of a 57.98% favourite is about −138, so −140 is slightly worse than fair.
- EV: −$0.60 per $100 (−0.60%)
- Kelly fraction is zero — there is no edge to size
- Verdict: PASS
Two prices that look almost identical (−125 and −140) land on opposite sides of the line. That is why the workflow starts from a vig-free fair price instead of the raw odds: it tells you exactly which prices are worth taking.
Frequently Asked Questions
A value bet is a wager whose odds pay more than its true probability of winning justifies, so it has positive expected value. For example, a team with a fair 58% chance should be priced around −138; if a book offers −125, the bet is value. Over many such bets the edge turns into profit, even though any single bet can lose.
Sharp bookmaker lines (like Pinnacle) are the best publicly available probability estimates. Removing their small vig gives you a near-true probability that's more accurate than most personal estimates.
Half Kelly is recommended for most bettors. Full Kelly maximizes long-term growth rate but has very high variance — a few bad beats can cut your bankroll in half. Half Kelly gives ~75% of the growth rate with much less volatility.
Don't bet. A negative EV means the odds you're getting are worse than the true probability. The Kelly Criterion will output zero or negative, confirming there's no edge to exploit.
Use the sharpest two-way line you can find — a low-margin book such as Pinnacle or a betting exchange price — because the fair probability is only as good as the line it comes from. Then enter the price you can actually bet at a different book in Step 2. If both prices come from the same soft book, the workflow will almost always say PASS, because that book's own margin is already built into its odds.
This workflow currently supports two-way markets. For three-way markets, use the standalone No-Vig Calculator which supports 1X2, then manually feed the fair probability into the EV and Kelly calculators.
Embed This Calculator on Your Website
Free for blogs, forums and tipster sites. Paste this HTML where the calculator should appear — it resizes automatically.
<div class="calcvault-embed" style="max-width:700px;margin:0 auto;">
<script src="https://www.calcvault.co/widget.js" data-calc="betting-value-workflow" data-backlink="inline"></script>
<p style="text-align:center;margin:6px 0 0;font-size:12px;font-family:system-ui,sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.calcvault.co/calculators/betting-value-workflow">Value Bet Finder Workflow by CalcVault</a></p>
</div>