Hedge Bet Calculator — Lock In Guaranteed Profit

The hedge bet calculator is for one situation: you already hold a bet — a single, a parlay or a futures ticket — and you want to bet the opposite outcome at another book (or on a betting exchange) to lock in profit or cut your risk. Laying your original selection is a different bet; use the Lay Bet Calculator for that.

1. Original Stake — the amount you wagered on your original bet.
2. Original Odds — the odds you got. For a parlay, enter its combined odds (total payout ÷ stake as decimal odds).
3. Hedge Odds — the odds available now on the opposite side.
4. Exchange Commission — only if you hedge on an exchange (Betfair 5%, Smarkets 2%); it is taken from the hedge winnings.

Odds can be typed in American (+650, -110), decimal (7.50) or fractional (13/2). Choose your format once with the Odds format switch; it is saved on your device and every betting calculator opens in it.

Then pick a hedge strategy:

• Equal profit — the stake that gives the same result whichever side wins.
• Break even — the smallest hedge that returns your original stake if the original bet loses, leaving the rest of the upside on the original bet.
• Custom stake — any amount you choose (a partial hedge).

The result always shows both the equal-profit and the break-even stake, plus an outcome table: for "original bet wins" and "hedge bet wins" it lists what each bet makes or loses and your net result, with the implied probability of each side. If both net results are positive you have locked in a risk-free return.

The hedge calculation finds the stake that makes your profit identical in both outcome scenarios. Here is the full derivation:

1. Define variables:
   • S = original stake (your original bet)
   • B = original odds (decimal)
   • H = hedge odds (decimal)
   • X = hedge stake (what we are solving for)
2. If your original bet wins:
   Profit = S × (B − 1) − X
   (You collect S × B from your original bet, which includes your stake S, and lose the hedge stake X.)
3. If your original bet loses:
   Profit = X × (H − 1) − S
   (You lose your original stake S and collect X × H from the hedge bet, returning X.)
4. Set profits equal and solve for X:
   S(B − 1) − X = X(H − 1) − S
   SB − S − X = XH − X − S
   SB = XH
   X = S × B / H
5. Guaranteed profit (both outcomes):
   Profit = S(B − 1) − X = SB − S − SB/H = SB(1 − 1/H) − S

A guaranteed profit is only achievable when 1/B + 1/H < 1 — the two prices together imply less than 100%, which happens when the market has moved your way: your selection is now shorter, so the price on the other side has drifted out. Otherwise at least one scenario shows a loss.

Break-even hedge

To get exactly your original stake back if the original bet loses, the hedge winnings must equal S: X × (H − 1) = S, so X = S / (H − 1). If the original bet wins you keep S × (B − 1) − X. With exchange commission c, replace H by 1 + (H − 1)(1 − c) in every formula above.

Example 1 — Standard Hedge Bet with Guaranteed Profit

You backed Team A to win at odds 2.10 for $100. After the game kicks off, odds on Team A have shortened and another book now offers 2.05 on the other side (Team A not winning). Since 1/2.10 + 1/2.05 ≈ 0.96 is below 1, a hedge on that side locks in a profit.

• Hedge stake = $100 × 2.10 / 2.05 ≈ $102.44
• If Team A wins: $100 × (2.10 − 1) − $102.44 = $110 − $102.44 = +$7.56 profit
• If Team A loses: $102.44 × (2.05 − 1) − $100 = $107.56 − $100 = +$7.56 profit
• Total invested: $202.44 — ROI: 3.73%

By betting $102.44 at the hedge book, you have guaranteed yourself a $7.56 profit no matter what. This is a classic arb that arises when the line has moved in your favour after you placed the original bet.

Example 2 — Hedging an Ante-Post Bet After the Price Shortens

You backed a horse at 5.00 for $50 before the race. Post-draw, the horse's price has shortened, and another book offers 4.20 on the opposite outcome (the horse not winning). A bet on that opposite outcome is the hedge the calculator models. Because 1/5.00 + 1/4.20 ≈ 0.44 is well below 1, you can lock in a profit on both outcomes:

• Hedge stake = $50 × 5.00 / 4.20 ≈ $59.52
• If horse wins: $50 × 4 − $59.52 = $200 − $59.52 = +$140.48
• If horse loses: $59.52 × 3.20 − $50 = $190.48 − $50 = +$140.48

That is a $140.48 profit locked in before the race, about 128% of the $109.52 total staked.

Example 3 — Futures Ticket: Equal Profit vs Break Even

You hold $100 on a team to win the title at +650 (7.50). They reach the final, where the opponent is +195 (2.95).

• Equal profit: hedge $100 × 7.50 / 2.95 ≈ $254.24 on the opponent → +$395.76 whichever team wins.
• Break even: hedge $100 / 1.95 ≈ $51.28 → if your team wins you net $650 − $51.28 = +$598.72; if the opponent wins the hedge returns your $100 and you finish at $0.

Equal profit buys certainty; break even keeps most of the upside while making sure the ticket cannot cost you money. The outcome table in the calculator shows both rows for whichever stake you pick.

When Should You Hedge?

Hedging makes sense in several situations:

• Price movement: Your selection has shortened dramatically, so the odds on the other side have drifted out far enough that 1/original odds + 1/hedge odds is below 1.
• Large stake at risk: The potential loss is significant enough that accepting a smaller guaranteed profit is worth more than the expected value of running the bet to completion.
• Matched betting: Turning a free bet or sign-up offer into guaranteed cash by backing at the bookmaker and laying on an exchange. That is a lay bet, which this calculator does not model; use the Matched Betting Calculator or the Lay Bet Calculator for it.
• Accumulator insurance: You are one leg from a large accumulator win and want to lock in a portion of the profit rather than risk it all on the final game.